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Edison issues outlook on Atossa Genetics (ATOS)

GlobeNewswire Friday, 7 December 2018
LONDON, Dec. 07, 2018 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Atossa Genetics’s (ATOS) endoxifen programs are advancing in their respective breast health programs. The firm recently reported positive safety data from its Phase I study on topical endoxifen in men, and it completed enrolment for its Phase II endoxifen study in women with elevated mammographic breast density (MBD). It is also advancing an oral endoxifen formulation in women refractory to tamoxifen, and is applying its intraductal microcatheter (IDMC) with cancer drug fulvestrant. Our rNPV-derived equity valuation is $23.9m, or $3.66 per share.Atossa had $13.0m net cash at 30 September 2018. We expect its funds on hand to last into early 2020 and that it will raise $10m in 2019. For modelling purposes, we assign these financings to long-term debt. Our rNPV valuation includes the prospect of the firm’s topical and oral endoxifen programs for women, its IDMC-delivered fulvestrant program and now its gynecomastia program as well. We now obtain a lower rNPV valuation of $10.9m (vs $24.4m, previously), largely due to a lower success probability (4% vs 5%, previously) for the MBD program. After including Q318 net cash ($13.0m), we obtain an equity valuation of $23.9m, or $3.66 per fully diluted (FD) share (which assumes full conversion of 3,517 outstanding Series B convertible preferred shares into 1.0m common shares).

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