Maybe Don't Believe Jobs-Induced Stock Sell-Off? Market Overreacting, Some Think
There's plenty of reason to believe Wednesday's selloff was overdone.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell as much as 2.02% Wednesday.
The S&P 500 fell as much as 1.99% and the Nasdaq as much as 1.77%.
The punchout came after ADP released its jobs reporting, which showed the U.S. economy added 135,000 jobs in September, missing economists' estimates of 142,000.
The numbers followed a Tuesday ISM Manufacturing reading of 47.8, showing activity contracted in September.
The number also lagged the estimate of 50.1.
Any reading below 50 is a contraction.
Treasury yields fell, with the benchmark 10-year yield now at 1.595%.
But some market participants don't see this selloff as fully valid and remain more bullish than the average investor.
What the Bulls Say "Worries over the global slowdown continue to build," wrote LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick.
"Then throw in impeachment discussions and protests in Hong Kong, and we have a `sell first and ask questions later' market on our hands." But Derrick has two core reasons to think the selloff is overdone.
"October is known for being one of the most volatile months, and after two days, it is living up to that reputation," he said.
Perhaps more important, Detrick said, investors looking for "good news" should consider that "the U.S. consumer remains quite strong." Consumer spend represents roughly 70% of U.S. GDP, making the manufacturing decline look less ominous.
TheStreet's Jim Cramer on Wednesday wrote on TheStreet's premium sister publication RealMoney that a decline in manufacturing activity will cause a "freakout" in the market, but he does not think a recession is on the near-term horizon.
Of the many points he cites, he mentioned that ever since the U.S. began serious trade relations with China, the economy here has been a services economy.
Roughly two-thirds of American output is in the broader services sector, rather than manufacturing.
Poor manufacturing data can shave just a few basis points off U.S. GDP.
Jim Cramer: Why I Am Not Freaking Out About a Recession or a Warren Presidency What the Bears Will Say But the investors who are worried the market is too hot say that the manufacturing data could be a negative precursor.
They note that the S&P 500 is still up 15.2% year-to-date with a relatively elevated average forward price-to-earnings multiple of 17.8.
With business clearly investing and hiring less, that "strong" consumer spend could soon slow.
Plus, the trade war, while seeming less contentious of late, still very much exists.
If the U.S. and China don't soon jibe, more tariffs on Chinese goods coming into the U.S. will be in effect as of December.
Businesses have already held back on capital spending and hiring as uncertainty has overloaded of late.
A worsening trade war won't help.
The consumer certainly wouldn't benefit.