Penn Medicine Model Warns Of Coronavirus Tsunami To Hit Philadelphia In Mid-May

HAVE STAFF BACK IN THEBUILDING, ON SUNDAY, TO GETTHINGS MOVING ONCE AGAIN.WELL, JUST AS SCENESEMERGE FROM THE NEW YORK CITYAREA WHERE ONE HOSPITAL NOW,HAS HAD TO TRUCK BEING USED ASA MAKESHIFT MORGUE.IN PHILADELPHIA TODAY RENEWEDWARNINGS ABOUT OUR CLOSEPROXIMITY, AND PEOPLE IN OURAREA FROM NEW YORK, AGAIN AREADVISED TO SELF QUARANTINE.HEALTH REPORTER STEPHANIESTAHL HAS UPDATE INCLUDING ANALARMING PREDICTION FROM PENNMEDICINE, STEPHANIE.REPORTER: SEEING THOSESCENES FROM NEW YORK MANYWONDER COULD IT HAPPEN HERE?NO ONE KNOWS.THERE ARE A VARIETY OF MODELSTRACKING THE CORONAVIRUS SOMEMORE POSITIVE, THE ONE FROMTHE UNIVERSITY OF THEPENNSYLVANIA, PREDICTS ATSUNAMI, THAT COULD BE SIMILARTO WHAT IS HAPPENING IN NEWYORK.THE GROWING NUMBER OF THECORONAVIRUS CASES IN NEW YORKCITY IS OVERWHELMING HOSPITALSTHERE PEOPLE COME IN, THEYDIE, JUST RECYCLE REPEAT.REPORTER: THIS HOSPITAL INQUEENS HAS HAD 13 DEATHS INJUST 24 HOURS.NEW YORK CITY ACCOUNTS FORROUGHLY HALF OF THE ALLCORONAVIRUS CASES IN THECOUNTRY NOW.WE DON'T WANT PHILADELPHIATO BE NEXT MAJOR CITY TO BE INTHAT SITUATION.REPORTER: PHILADELPHIAHOPING TO AVOID NEW YORK AREINSTRUCTING VISITORS FROM NEWYORK TO SELF QUARANTINE FOR 14DAYS.HEALTH COMMISSIONER SAYS THATPHILADELPHIA HOSPITALS WILLHAVE BUSY ARE NOT OVERWHELMEDJUST RIGHT NOW.BUT TEEN AT PENN MEDICINE SAYSTHEIR MODELING SHOWS A TSUNAMICOMING, PREDICTING IT TO HITPHILADELPHIA IN MID-MAY.HE SAID THAT WOULD INCLUDE,1,000 PATIENTS ON VENTILATORSACROSS THE PENN MEDICINEHEALTH SYSTEM.ONE OF THE MANY MODELS TOPREDICT WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITHTHIS EPIDEMIC BUT THEY PREDICTWE WILL HAVE A EPIDEMIC WAVE.MOST IMPORTANT THING WE CAN DOTO SLOW THAT EPIDEMIC WAVE ISTO SOCIAL DISTANCING THAT WEARE DOING RIGHT NOW.REPORTER: STATEMENT FROMPENN MEDICINE SAYS ITCONTINUES TO TAKE AGGRESSIVEMEASURES TO ENSURE SAFETY,PROTECTION OF THE PATIENTS ANDSTAFF DURING THE COVID-19OUTBREAK.REGARDING REPORTS THAT STAFFHAVE BEEN INFECTED?IT SAYS THEY ARE PLACINGQUARANTINE AND INSTRUCTED TOADHERE TO ALL CTC PRECAUTIONS.CBS-3 ASKED TO INTERVIEW THEDEAN, AT PENN, AND WE WERETOLD HE WAS NOT AVAILABLETODAY.NOW, LOCAL AND STATE HEALTHOFFICIALS SAY THEY ARE IN THEPROCESS OF PLANNING FOR ASURGE OF PATIENTS WHICHINCLUDES IDENTIFYINGADDITIONAL HOSPITAL BEDS, ANDEQUIPMENT FOR HOSPITAL SYSTEMSTHROUGHOUT THE REGION.THEY ADD, WE MIGHT GET LUCKY,IF PEOPLE STAY HOME TO KEEP