Could Oil Rally to $95-barrel?

Could Oil Rally to $95-barrel?

(9/15/22) The Markets' big 4% drop in markets on news August CPI was 8.3% was the follow up to Monday's 90% upside day and the "bullish upthrust" in the market.

The resulting 90% down day completely reversed markets' gains, but markets were able to hold on to the rising trendline of higher lows.

Futures are weak this morning, so a test of support at last week's lows will be important today.

Add to the mix next week's FOMC meeting, and the small possibility of a 1% rate hike.

More important will be what the Fed says about inflation, and whether or not the rate hikes may continue.

Volatility remains compressed, but there does not seem to be much concern about a potential market crash.

Much of the Energy over-bought condition has been worked off, and oil prices now have the potential to rally up into the $90-$95/bbl range, especially if President Biden decides to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, pulling product off the market.

The Ten-year Treasury rate has also been on the rise, thanks to inflation concerns and what the Fed has been saying.

Bonds are now over-bought by three standard deviations.